One thing I’m always careful to do when looking at the market is to check my own perceptions with those of other brokers and more importantly, to check them against market data. For about six weeks now, it’s felt as if there’d been a slowdown, roughly concurrent with the start of the Iran war. For some time, though, the data didn’t scream out at me and it appeared that we were still in our normal cycle.
But now the data’s clear, and it looks like the normal cycle is a little kinked.
Usually, there’s a steady increase in both listings and sales as we move into the summer, It all peaks in the fall. But this year, we have seen pretty significant drop-off in pending sales in April, down to the level we normally see in midwinter. We don’t have May data yet, but it has felt softer still. See the chart below for the pending sales data. That dip you see on the far right of the chart is indeed something of an aberration. That’s ‘supposed’ to happen in November.
Pending Home Sales: Santa Fe Association of Realtors MLS, Three Years Ended April 30, 2026
Of course, one has to compare similar time periods and keep all else the same to arrive at a valid conclusion, so I looked at active listings for the three years ended April 30, 2026. Here, listing numbers continue to climb in their normal fashion.
So we have listings increasing at the usual rate and pending sales stalled like a ’69 Camaro in rush hour. This spells opportunity for buyers and indeed, throughout May, I have felt a softness in pricing that we don’t usually feel except in midwinter.
Home Listings: Santa Fe Association of Realtors MLS, Three Years Ended April 30, 2026
The market seems to be inviting buyers to try to take advantage of the disparity between inventory levels and sales to come to an attractive deal. At least that’s how I read it.
To view a few of my recent sales, click here. To search the Santa Fe inventory, click here.
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