Almost every one of my clients knows I’m a data nerd. It’s not just because I am a nerd (as Heather reminds me), but because I believe it’s important to view the Santa Fe real estate markets in a context that’s free of emotion if your aim is to know what’s happening on behalf of your clients. Many brokers tend to conflate their own experience with what the broad market’s doing, and that’s often an emotional thing and not valuable. Data can keep you out of trouble!
I originally wrote this in the Fall of 2025 and am somewhat intentionally not updating the data for this version, if only to restate the point that the residential markets in Santa Fe, right now, are reassuringly normal.
A Welcome Step Down from Pandemic Highs
When I looked at sales for 2025 through late November, it looked like the numbers would settle close to last year’s. And indeed they did. A tad lower. Respectable. But take a look at 2021, with its twin stimuli of buyers fleeing crowded population centers and artificially low mortgage rates fueling a boom. The nadir came in 2009 as the credit-driven financial crisis took hold and lending virtually came to a halt. So when I get questions from potential buyers in Santa Fe, I always place the numbers in the context of the Santa Fe market having normalized after the adrenaline-fueled pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. This cooling is healthy, in my view. Market fundamentals are quite steady, with several demand drivers. So far, in 2026, we had our usual slow winter start. But in April, listing and purchase activity has picked up.
It always does as we head into summer.
The Drivers of Santa Fe Demand Are Still in Place
It’s interesting to try to understand what the 2025 numbers mean in hindsight. For one, there’s still pent-up demand from the mortgage-rate lock-in effect (I wrote on that here) and that’ll continue until the sub-4% mortgage inventory depletes. That’s a positive influence, though its effect in the $1.2 million and up price bracket is muted because about half of those buyers pay cash here. More importantly: Santa Fe’s position as one of the leading resort markets means that we enjoy strong demand when other markets don’t. When this was originally written in the Fall, I thought we might see (should rates stay where they are at about 6.25%) a similar year in terms of volume, rather than some sudden change in either direction. Indeed that has been what has taken place. Rates jumped up to 6.50% and are now back around 6.30%.
Whither Prices?
Regarding prices: There is an annual (and temporary) winter mushiness in Santa Fe, from which we are now emerging. Several factors may support prices climbing through 2026, though maybe at less frenetic pace than over the past three years of shortage. Our market’s free of potential distortions, both those related to credit, to mortgage rates (now that they’ve have been allowed to find a natural level), to potential overbuilding, etc. In fact, the effect of threatened tariffs is still constraining new-home building, and that’s a potentially positive influencing factor on prices. Do note, though, that this market is extremely intolerant of pricing mistakes on the high side. A seller who prices too high will be punished. Two years ago you could slip by and maybe get your price; now, not so.
Is the rest of 2026 going to be another Goldilocks market? Perhaps. It’s fairly relaxed at the moment for most buyers and sellers and “normal” is probably an apt word.
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